Jack & Jill Politics

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Politics: Governor Charlie Crist of Florida did the right thing.

Crist extends early voting hours

Gov. Charlie Crist on Tuesday afternoon issued an order expanding the hours of early voting up to 12 hours a day through Saturday, from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m., and a total of 12 weekend hours, between 7 a.m. Saturday and 7 p.m. Sunday. (The law allowed for a maximum of eight hours a day and a total of eight on the weekend).

At a hastily arranged news conference, Crist said the right to vote is sacred and that “many have fought and died for this right.”

Crist did the right thing. Remember, Charlie Crist also restored ex-felon voting rights.

Latest ASU poll:

At 7:00 PST, the full results of the ASU poll (AZ-Pres) will be released. At a speach today, Arizona State University pollster Bruce Merrill stated the top line:

McCain 46%, Obama 44%

From the “Has she lost what is left of her natural mind” file, I give you Victoria Jackson

From Camp Country Last, according to Politico.com

(about Caribou Barbie)***In convo with Playbook, a top McCain adviser one-ups the priceless “diva” description, calling her “a whack job.”

Ah, such love in Camp Country Last.

The Black Turnout Surge, Already in Progress

According to Michael McDonald’s terrific website, there are three states in which early voting has already exceeded its totals from 2004. These are Georgia, where early voting is already at 180 percent of its 2004 total, Louisiana (169 percent), and North Carolina (129 percent).

Hmm … can anybody think of something that those three states have in common?

The African-American population share is the key determinant of early voting behavior. In states where there are a lot of black voters, early voting is way, way up. In states with fewer African-Americans, the rates of early voting are relatively normal.

This works at the county level too. In Cuyahoga County, Ohio (Cleveland), which about 30 percent black, twice as many people have already voted early as in all of 2004. In Franklin County (Columbus), which is about 18 percent black and also has tons of students, early voting is already about 3x its 2004 total.

So when McCain’s pollster talks about Obama’s black vote being “locked in”, he is at best getting the story half-right. It’s true that there aren’t very many African-Americans who are reporting themselves as undecided. But any polling based on 2004 assumptions about what black turnout will look like is probably going to miss the mark significantly.

Frankly, I do think that McCain is the favorite to win a majority of undecideds (but a majority means like 55-60%, not some ridiculous fraction like 70%).

But I also think that the polls are probably undercounting Obama’s decided vote, particularly among African-Americans, and young persons with cellphones.

–Nate Silver, fivethirtyeight.com

Obama attacks McCain on health care

Now, to be fair, there is one thing he’ll change – and that’s our health care system. But he won’t change it in a good way. Senator McCain’s health care plan would tax your benefits for the first time in history. Independent studies say that under his plan, at least 20 million Americans would lose the insurance they currently rely on and be forced to buy health care coverage on the individual market. For all this, he’d only give your family a $5,000 tax credit when the average plan costs over $12,000.

Senator McCain doesn’t like to talk about this plan all that much. But this morning, we were offered a stunning bit of straight talk – an October surprise – from his top economic advisor, who actually said that the health insurance people currently get from their employer is – and I quote – “way better” than the health care they would get if John McCain becomes President.

Now this is the point I’ve been making since Senator McCain unveiled his plan. It took until the last seven days of this election for his campaign to finally admit the truth. But hey, better late than never.

And the truth is, John McCain’s health care plan is radical, it’s unaffordable, and it’s not the change we need right now.

Kwame Kilpatrick, the ex-mayor of Detroit, heads to prison today to begin serving his 120-day sentence for lying during a trial that investigated his firing and hiring practices. For $115 per day, Kilpatrick gets a 15-by-10-foot cell with an hour out for recreation. (Detroit Free Press)

Poll finds N. Carolinian who slammed liberals now behind

By Peter St. Onge | Charlotte Observer

North Carolina Congressman Robin Hayes, reeling from recent remarks about “Liberals hating real Americans,” has lost his lead in North Carolina’s 8th Congressional District race.

Hayes trails Democrat Larry Kissell 51-46 in a poll released Tuesday by Raleigh’s Public Policy Polling. In its last NC-8 poll in August, PPP had the incumbent Hayes leading by five points.

Hayes, in a warmup to John McCain’s speech Oct. 18 in Concord, told the crowd: “Liberals hate real Americans that work and accomplish and achieve and believe in God.”

The Hayes campaign initially said the congressman denied making the remark, but after being confronted with tapes of the remarks, the campaign released a statement acknowledging the remark.

Wonderful video: Charles meets Barack

This is still an Open Thread.

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And continue to have a peaceful day.