The next two weeks could be crucial as far as determining the direction of this election.


Because McCain is on the ropes and he knows it. National polls are moving in Obama’s direction and state polls (remember it’s all about the electoral college) demonstrate a shift towards Obama as well.

Let’s look at the numbers. . .

First, Obama’s performance at the debate should go a long way in helping him reach the 270 electoral votes he needs to win. Polls show that fence-sitters preferred Obama to McCain:

CBS Poll: Obama leads McCain among uncommitted voters, 41% > 29%

No wonder Obama’s getting stronger in the national polls. The latest Gallup Daily Tracking Poll puts Obama up by 8%. Yes, that number is post-debate, which would lead many to conclude that Obama helped himself Friday night. discusses Obama’s strengthening poll numbers:

Here’s the long and short of it for John McCain: Barack Obama has as large a lead in the election as he’s held all year. But there is much less time left on the clock than there was during other Obama periods of strength, such as in February, mid-June or immediately following the Democratic convention. This is a very difficult combination of circumstances for him.

But, of course, this isn’t about the national polls, it’s about the Electoral College. And those numbers are looking strong for Obama as well.

As it stands now, Obama enjoys a lead in the electoral college: Obama leads 229 > 174 Obama leads 240 > 200
Karl Rove(just for kicks): Obama leads 211 > 189 (projected: Obama 273>265) Obama wins 286 >252 Obama wins 325 > 212

Pay close attention to the state polls this week. The trends appear as such:

Michigan is coming back to blue. Colorado is looking blue as well. Virginia is tilting in Obama’s favor as of late. And states like Florida and North Carolina have gone from “safe” McCain territory to “toss-up” status.

If initial polling is any indicator, my guess is we should start to see Obama solidify his lead in the electoral college. If Obama’s debate performance impressed Independent voters as well as polls suggest, look for states like Minnesota, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania (states that lean Obama) to shift comfortably into the blue column over the next couple of weeks.

Cautiously optimistic . . . that’s how I’d characterize Obama’s chances at this point. Obama has a lead and it’s growing. The trends are in his favor. That, coupled with increased voter registration bodes well for the blue team. Again . . . it’s ours if we want it. Which is why I stand by my slogan for the 2008 campaign: This ain’t the time to get cute.

A focused effort should win easily, but distractions and disunity could cause a heart-breakingly narrow loss if we’re not careful.

For everyone doing your part . . . Keep up the good work!

Obama/Biden ’08!!!

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