Jack & Jill Politics

h/t tpm election central.

I don’t like citing polls, because i think they muck up the waters too much, but since it was pollsters who helped spread this notion that Clinton supporters would never support Obama, I find it appropriate to cite the latest from Gallup:

The latest national numbers from Gallup show some startling movement towards Obama among Dems who have been among Hillary’s most reliable supporters.

It finds that Obama is now tied with Hillary among whites (47%-47%); leads her among women (49%-46%); edges her among Dems with a high school graduate or less (46%-47%); and leads her among Hispanics (51%-44%).

Those groups, obviously, have been the bedrock of Hillary’s candidacy. The only major demographic group that Hillary gets 51% or more of are women aged 50 and older.

These numbers suggest that Obama’s support is broadening daily, and that the party’s rank and file — in addition to its institutional players — appear to be coalescing behind him.

No. Duh.

While I’ve written some fiery posts questioning the statements from Clinton supporters who said they would never ever vote Obama, I’ve also characterized such comments as bullshit.

In the middle of an intense fight, everybody wants to sound tough. The same Democrats who claim they’d never vote Obama are the Democrats who vowed to move to Canada if Bush won in 2004. No one did. People are full of it and out of it when answering this question.

But the TPM story highlights another problem. Just look at this sentence

some startling movement towards Obama among Dems who have been among Hillary’s most reliable supporters.

What I found most difficult to accept was the idea that Hillary’s support is from “core Democratic voters” (i.e. hard-working white folk, industrial midwest, less educated) but that these voters would vote McCain over Obama.

The problem I had with that? Do you know what “core Democratic voters” do? You know what defines them? They vote Democrat. That’s how you know they are Democratic voters!