Jack & Jill Politics

AFL-CIO Executive Vice President Arlene Holt Baker says women and people of color are being hit hardest by the recession.

A close look at the unemployment figures shows that while white males are taking it on the chin in this recession, women and people of color are down for the count.

Although, in this recession, unemployment is rising faster for whites than for African Americans, the fact is that the jobless rate for minorities is still significantly higher than that of whites and has been for a long time. And with this recession looking to be long and deep, these higher rates of unemployment could have dramatic consequences for economic security, homeownership and child poverty rates, among other things.

Testifying last month before a U.S. House committee, Algernon Austin, director of the Program on Race, Ethnicity and the Economy at the Economic Policy Institute (EPI), pointed out that in this recession, America’s racial and ethnic minorities are hurting more than the average worker.

Women and People of Color Down for the Count in Jobless Recovery

EVENING OPEN THREAD IS UP

Mormon Apostle Dallin H. Oaks, in criticizing the anti-Mormon backlash that followed the passing of California's Proposition 8, ignited a backlash of his own. Speaking to an audience at Brigham Young University-Idaho, the high-ranking church official compared protests against the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints and boycotts against business owners who supported Proposition 8 to the oppression of blacks in the American South during the civil rights movement. Oaks said that "These incidents were expressions of outrage against those who disagreed with the gay-rights position and had prevailed in a public contest. As such, these incidents of 'violence and intimidation' are not so much anti-religious as anti-democratic. In their effect they are like the well-known and widely condemned voter-intimidation of blacks in the South that produced corrective federal civil-rights legislation." (Emphasis added.)

Church Official Thinks Being a Mormon is Like Being Black

Harry Reid abdicates his leadership role by kos Share this on Twitter - Harry Reid abdicates his leadership role Wed Oct 14, 2009 at 01:30:04 PM PDT Bill Frist never had 60 votes. Bill Frist never cared. Republicans ran the Senate as if they owned the place, even when enjoying razor-thin majorities. Yet when Democrats took the chamber, the first thing Harry Reid did was complain that he couldn't do anything because he didn't have 60 votes. Then voters delivered 59 votes. And Harry Reid whined that he still couldn't do anything. In fact, nothing would ever get accomplished unless they had 60, and to do that, they had to bring turncoat Joe Lieberman back into the fold, even though he had spent the previous year making common cause with John McCain and Sarah Palin, even speaking at the Republican National Convention in Minnesota. You see, we were told, Joe Lieberman is with us on everything except the war! So we need him for 60, and when we have 60, everyone will get ponies! And if Lieberman strays, why, Evan Bayh said Senate Democrats could punish him! If he does retain his chairmanship, we still exert oversight over him and control over him. He doesn't have the ability to just do whatever he wants. The caucus still has the right to remove him from that position at any time if he starts going off on some kind of tangent. Control him? Ha ha ha ha ha ha! Good thing we never believed his bullshit, because neither Bayh, nor Reid, nor any of the ineffective corporatist Dems would ever let this sort of thing actually happen. Lieberman knows this, which is why he's once again making common cause with Republicans. So once again, Reid is complaining that he doesn't have 60 votes, which is why they need to anoint Olympia Snowe as de facto President of the United States. Maybe SHE will get us to 60! But we all know Snowe has no intention of voting for real reform, and yet Reid (with White House backing) continue to let themselves get played. It's all a farce. So much for 60. Still, don't ask Harry Reid, Democratic Leader, Senate Leader, and the party's #3 leader to actually start leading. Senator Harry Reid’s office is now going on record pushing back hard against a campaign by the left to compel him to force Dem Senators into line on health care, with Reid’s spokesman sending me a statement claiming the idea is unworkable and a non-starter [...] "Senator Reid is focused on crafting a health care bill that will overcome a Republican filibuster. Stripping Democratic Senators of their leadership titles is a decision that would be left up to the Caucus, not Senator Reid. In light of this reality it’s unlikely that the Caucus would ever go along with this idea." So that's that. The notion of "leading" is clearly a non-starter for Reid, according to his office. Well, glad Reid's office has admitted as such. Time for new leadership. And take special note of this sentence: Senator Reid is focused on crafting a health care bill that will overcome a Republican filibuster. Republican filibuster? Democrats have 60 voters. There is no Republican filibuster, just a Democratic one. The problem is Reid's inability to keep his caucus together. His office can't even be honest about Reid's leadership failures. Fucking liars. I'll take a Chuck Schumer-run Senate with 57 Democrats (bye bye Reid, Lieberman, and Lincoln) than a Harry Reid-run one with 75 Democrats
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/10/14/79...

" Metro Atlanta / State News 12:30 p.m. Wednesday, October 14, 2009
Rex's link to first lady may bring attention, restoration to tiny Georgia village

"In the 1850s Melvinia worked on a 200-acre farm just outside the village, owned by Henry Shields. Genealogists contracted by the New York Times tracked Melvinia's lineage, through her biracial son Dolphus Shields, and discovered that her great-great-great granddaughter is Michelle Obama.

"I got chills up and down my spine when I read it," said Denise Seltz, who lives in Rex with her husband Darryl. "Now I feel like we're ‘this' close," she said, holding two fingers a millimeter apart.

"This is actually very exciting," said Gayle Beddingfield, who, with her husband, Jerry, owns the 160-year-old mill that is the centerpiece of the tiny village. "It sheds more history on Rex that none of us knew."

The news couldn't come at a better time. With the help of Clayton County's economic development director Grant Wainscott, Rex's business leaders are planning a campaign to restore Rex's 100-year-old commercial buildings -- including a cotton gin, a mercantile building and the mill.

They hope to capitalize on its small size, its bucolic setting and its one-of-a-kind structures to generate tourism. They think a connection to the White House might help.

The residents of Rex realize, however, that the story of Melvinia has a tragic side....."

Do you have a link so we can read the whole thing?

Sorry, thought I included it..here you go

http://www.ajc.com/news/rex-s-link-to-162620.html

I dont believe but I am shaking my head at this
Rewriting the Bible Wasn't Enough: Now They're Gonna Burn It
by MeMeMeMeMe
Share this on Twitter - Rewriting the Bible Wasn't Enough: Now They're Gonna Burn It Wed Oct 14, 2009 at 02:08:56 PM PDT
As if rewriting the Bible to remove "liberal bias" wasn't enough, a group of loonies in North Carolina are taking things a step further:

A Baptist Church near Asheville, N.C., is hosting a "Halloween book burning" to purge the area of "Satan's" works, which include all non-King James versions of the Bible, popular books by many religious authors and even country music.

MeMeMeMeMeMe Meg's diary :: :: Pause to savor the irony in the following quote:

"I believe the King James version is God's preserved, inspired, inerrant and infallible word of God," Pastor Marc Grizzard told a local news station of his 14-member parish.

Yes, Pastor, that particular version of the Bible, authorized by King James, is definitely the Word of God, since it was authorized by a king and all, 1600 years after the time of Christ. It was left for Parliament to slap its seal of approval on it, and voila!, you've got the infallible Word o' God.

Church leaders deem Good News for Modern Man, the Evidence Bible, the New International Version Bible, the Green Bible and the Message Bible, as well as at least seven other versions of the Bible as "Satan's Bibles," according to the website.

You gotta hand it to Ol' Scratch: when he wants to deceive, he doesn't fuck around. He goes right behind enemy lines.

Attendees will also set fire to "Satan's popular books" such as the work of "heretics" including the Pope, Mother Teresa, Billy Graham and Rick Warren.

Okay, so they've got some taste.
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/10/14/79...

I've seen many a vehicle with the bumper sticker "If it ain't King James, it ain't Bible!" around here.

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/view/103568/VID...

"Hosts Jimmy Smits, Eva Longoria Parker and JLo were so impressed with his moves, they joked that Obama is really Latino but that “he just doesn’t know it”.

But this isn’t the first time that Obama has gotten his groove on in public.

In February 2008, the President became an internet sensation when he got up on stage at an Asleep at the Wheel concert in Texas to sing and dance their 80s hit Boogie Back to Texas."

and a blast from the past

http://www.cnn.com/video/?/video/politics/2008/...

Tweety is covering the Perry coverup of the Willingham execution

Wednesday, October 14, 2009
Feminine Wiles
Posted by Zandar
Kathleen Parker at the WaPo says the GOP should listen to its women.
If the GOP is really serious about expanding the party, it's time for the men to hush and let the pros take over. As the saying goes: If you need something done, hire a busy woman. Or, as the White House Project puts it: "Add women, change everything."
In the past few months, several conservative women have emerged as candidates and critics to challenge the notion that the GOP is the party of men. They're also putting to rest any thought that Sarah Palin is the female face of the party.

The McCain campaign had the right idea; it just picked the wrong woman.

Among the newer comers are two mega-businesswomen and two famous daughters, representing younger generations with divergent ideas. Although these aren't the only Republican women rising, they offer a glimpse at what could become a surge of hormonal correction on the conservative side.

She goes on to list her candidates for change: Liz Cheney, Meghan McCain, Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman. Some observations:

1) An honest discussion of up-and-coming Republican women that doesn't list Sarah Palin as one very much qualifies as sign of progress for the Wingers.

2) Too bad the four Parker listed aren't much better, to the point of underlining just how wrong Parker's assumption is because...

3) The rest of the GOP is about as misogynistic as you can get. Getting intelligent, erudite and compelling women in the GOP would be a lot easier if the GOP didn't treat women in general like second-class citizens (along with gays, African-Americans, Latinos, and intelligent, erudite and compelling people in general.)

The problem isn't "We need to listen to women." It's "We need to stop treating Americans like morons."

[UPDATE 3:08 PM] And god help me, because this means I agree with MoDo The Red.

http://zandarvts.blogspot.com/2009/10/feminine-...

It is going to be fun to watch and see how well these women race bait like the GOP men...cause that IS the GOP base...Palin showed that!!

Unions are popularly known as "the folks who brought you the weekend." In contrast, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce has the distinction of trying to take away the weekend--along with overtime pay, the minimum wage, Buy America rules, workers' freedom to form unions, child labor standards....The list is long and ugly.

So it's farcical that today the Chamber launched a campaign estimated to run in the tens of millions of dollars to promote job creation.

The Chamber's campaign originally started out as an attack against financial regulation--until the Chamber found out how strongly U.S. taxpayers support reigning in Big Banks and the financial industry's widespread shady practices. So the Chamber conveniently changed the packaging to purportedly focus on jobs, which in fact the American people desperately need.

Look at who accompanied the Chamber suits while they were announcing their Orweillian-named "free enterprise campaign." As Sam Stein reported here:

Many of the individuals featured on Wednesday are long-standing donors to Republican candidates and groups that have fought efforts to enhance regulation. And, in one case, the business leader appearing alongside [Thomas] Donohue to decry the interference of government in the market place received business through the benefit of government contracts.

Yet, while millions of America's workers struggle to find jobs in an economy where there are more than six workers searching for every one job, the Chamber repeatedly opposed extending unemployment insurance. Can't have government interference in the marketplace, after all. Or aid to jobless workers. The same workers the Chamber's smoke-and-mirrors campaign is supposed to be all about.

The Chamber also is joining with Big Banks and financial giants to try and kill a proposed agency that would protect U.S. consumers from being preyed upon by unscrupulous banks, mortgage lenders and many of the same financial institutions that helped create our nation's economic disaster. The Obama administration's proposed Consumer Financial Protection Agency, which this week is being considered in the House Financial Services Committee, would regulate products such as credit cards and home loans, while ensuring the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission oversaw the $450 trillion "derivatives" market that sunk the world economy.

The Chamber is spending $2 million in attack ads, claiming that the new agency would hamstring even your local butcher from extending you credit for a week. It's the same sorry effort at deception and outright lies that the health insurance industry now is trying to pull in the debate over health care reform. Tell enough lies and hope someone believes you.

As President Obama said in response to the Chamber's distortion:

"We've made clear that only businesses that offer financial services would be affected by this agency. I don't know how many of your butchers are offering financial services," Obama said to laughter.

The Chamber of Commerce's Jobs Deception Campaign

Michael Steele says "I'm the cow on the tracks standing in the way" of health reform in response to a comment from a FOX News reporter describing health care reform as a train pulling out of the station. Earlier Steele asked if we could "have a Rodney King moment?"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AWskF37rIVc

Apparently Chairman Steele is a little fuzzy on the aftermath of cow/train clashes:

http://wonkette.com/407744/nyt-headlines-used-t...

Here's the response from DailyKosTV

http://www.dailykostv.com/w/002253/

Man, I KNEW this guy was gonna be a train wreck but I had no idea....

HEEEEY eclecticbrotha: ***BIG HUG*** :>)

I'm tryin' 2 capture THAT - - - IMAGE. But, couldn't do it. :>)

Soooooooo - - -I had 2 get them - - - -SEPARATELY - - - Here R da TRACKS

he just should stop talking.

Thousands of wealthy Americans have volunteered information about unreported income hidden in overseas accounts ahead of the deadline for a U.S. government tax amnesty program, the U.S. tax commissioner said on Wednesday.

Roughly 7,500 Americans have taken part in the amnesty program, more than double the participation reported a few weeks ago, Doug Shulman, commissioner of the Internal Revenue Service, told reporters during a briefing. The amnesty program ends on Thursday.

The IRS is expanding its offshore tax crackdown and will open new criminal offices in Beijing, Sydney and Panama, Shulman said. "The IRS has new momentum in this entire area and in the coming months our efforts will only intensify," he said.

Under the amnesty program that began in September, tax cheats can declare offshore income, pay reduced fines and get general immunity from criminal prosecution. The program turned up undeclared income from offshore accounts ranging from $10,000 to more than $100 million, Shulman said.

7,500 offshore tax evaders come clean

A couple of those people have committed suicide very recently and the suspicion is due to their off shore accounts.

LMAO....

seems like they aren't so ' big and bad' when it comes to coming against the Guvmint.

Got that right, we are no longer operating under previous admin's IRS policy for the wealthiest called "catch and drop".

Rush Limbaugh is expected to be dropped from a group bidding to buy the St. Louis Rams, according to three NFL sources.

Dave Checketts, chairman of the NHL's St. Louis Blues and the point man in the Limbaugh group attempting to buy the Rams, realizes he must remove the controversial conservative radio host from his potential role as a minority member in the group in order to get approval from other NFL owners, the sources said.

Three-quarters of the league's 32 owners would have to approve any sale to Limbaugh and his group. Earlier this week, Indianapolis Colts owner Jim Irsay predicted that Limbaugh's potential bid would be met by significant opposition. Several players have also voiced their displeasure with Limbaugh's potential ownership position, and NFL Players Association head DeMaurice Smith, who is black, urged players to speak out against Limbaugh's bid.

Sources: Checketts to drop Limbaugh

Now Mr.Checketts needs to answer why would he even consider going into a partnership with the druggie limpballs the hut.

have you read some of the stuff on CHECKETTS....Big Pharma isn't the only one with white sheets in his background.

Just google him and found out he is a mormon.Enough said

Maybe just to separate limpballs from his dollars?

DJIA 10015.86 +144.80‎ (1.47%‎) Oct 14 4:02pm ET

Yippee another Jobless recovery!

Edit:

For months and months, conservatives blamed President Obama for the slumping stock market. “Obama, since he’s elected, has tanked the markets,” Fox News’ Sean Hannity said in March. Now that the Dow has rebounded to over 10,000, what are the conservatives saying? On his Fox News today, Neil Cavuto claimed the stock market rebound is evidence of a “Bush recovery”

Fox News’ Neil Cavuto: “Is this now the ‘Bush Recovery’”?

I wish you had kept the comments apart.

The first is so damn serious its hard to laugh a Cavuto being a tool.

Best Drunk Video on the internet at the moment!
Blame it on alcohol....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sh6oGwOMVeY

BWAHAHAHAHHA....he was like a turtle on his back trying to get up!!!

ctfu...and STILL trying to buy more BEER!!

Lord that was hilarious!1

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/entertainment/830761...

Leona Lewis "punched" at book signing.


daaaaaamn!

Mariah Carey must be stopped!

DAMMIT COLE!!!!!!!!!!!!!! _________________________*dead*

You wrong!!

Does America have best health care in world? Huge majority of Americans don’t think so
A Pew Research Center poll SHOWS that only 15 percent of Americans consider their country’s health-care system the best in the world.

Conservative Republican respondents were the most likely to rate the American system as the best or above average. But then, this group also is more likely to include Birthers, Deathers, Tenthers and other oddballs.
http://pewresearch.org/databank/dailynumber/?Nu...

Somebody hold my earrings while I go to Hampton University and beat this witch down myself. "Aloha Mr. President...I am hoping that perhaps you would be able to make an appearance to my campus..." WTF



Here is what she wrote:

Subject:
Hampton University

To:
President Barack Obama

October 11, 2009

Aloha Mr. Obama!

My name is Nikole Churchill, a senior nursing major at Hampton University. This past Friday October 9, 2009, I was honored to be crowned Miss Hampton University 2009-2010. It truly was the best night of my life! With that being said, I am sad to say…… that my crowning was not widely accepted and many negative comments regarding my win have been shared throughout my campus.

It would be much easier to say that possibly some were not accepting of the news because I wasn’t the most qualified contestant; however, the true reason for the disapproval was because of the color of my skin. I am not African-American. Despite the unfortunate beliefs that some are saying I should not have won, I am desperately trying to focus on those who believe in me and support me and my goal to represent this beautiful, multicultural campus the very best way that I can. I would love your help!

I am hoping that perhaps you would be able to make an appearance to my campus, Hampton University, so that my fellow Hamptonians can stop focusing so much on the color of my skin and doubting my abilities to represent, but rather be proud of the changes our nation is making towards accepting diversity. People are even nicknaming me, “lil Obama” because of various reasons. This is truly an honor as well!

I am also from Hawaii (Wahiawa) and I am hoping that you can assist me in opening some closed minds and help share some aloha spirit throughout my campus. I feel as though you could relate to my situation, which is why I immediately wanted to contact you. I was interviewed last night at the HU vs. HU football game by news channel 13 and I mentioned how individuals such as you and myself are making changes in hopes people can stop placing so much focus on our skin color by letting that define what we can, cannot, should, and/or should not do. Dr. Harvey welcomed me last night to the family with open arms and I was beyond honored when he told me that he is behind me 100%. I am proud to represent Hampton University and I am so proud having you to represent our home, our country. Your support with my crowning as Miss Hampton University 2009-2010 would be graciously appreciated. Please reply, I will be looking forward to it!

-Nikole Churchill

Virginia Beach , VA

That’s where the trouble started. School administrators released a statement claiming Nikole had not yet been authorized to speak out about her win, therefore the open letter to Obama put her crown in jeopardy. This quickly followed: In a statement to The Hampton Roads Daily Press Tuesday, Nikole issued an apology to the Hampton University community for penning to the Obama Call:

“I am honored to be the winner of the Miss Hampton University Pageant that was held on Friday, October 9, 2009. On Sunday, October 11, 2009 I posted a letter to President Obama saying that my win was not widely accepted on campus. I have now come to regret writing this letter and disappointing the very students that I now represent. I took the comments of a few and blew it out of proportion. In reality, all comments that have been directed towards me and the reception I received at the Hampton University versus Howard University football game on Saturday, October 10, 2009 were genuinely supportive. Today, I met with student leaders and other elected student officials and they were also supportive. Hampton University has always promoted diversity. In fact Hampton University pioneered American Indian education and has embraced diversity since its inception. I truly apologize to all students, faculty, staff and alumni. It was absolutely not my intention to bring negative attention to the University. I deeply apologize for any misunderstandings that this may have caused and I look forward to working with my fellow students to promote the Hampton University legacy.”

Nikole Churchill

Miss Hampton University 2009-2010

Myth: Here R your - - -EARRINGS!! :>)

N-i-i-i-i-i-i-i-c-e!!! :>) :>)

I got ya earrings..want some vaseline?

See, she effed up by writing this letter.

Something ain't right. This sounds like a publicity stunt gone wrong. Like Town said in the other thread, she won Friday and she writing an email to PBO on Saturday? C'mon, son!

Yeah, she was probably mad long before Friday at the other contestants. You can tell some drama was going on my the attitude that they are showing in the picture. So after Nikole won, she decided Ima get these witches. I'll just write Obama a letter and get him down here to defend me. She's young and had not thought thru the ramifications of the letter. "No justice, no peace." She won't me having anymore peace on that or any other HU campus embarrasing them like this.

Funny how the HU student body doesn't seem to have a problem with Mr. HU, who is also not black.

Words simply fail

You know why.

Why...Asian men are now desirable to black women or what?

That's your assumption. Meow. No cat fight with you here either.

BWA HA HA HA HA HA HA

HEEEY Myth: LOL!!!! :>) Somebody hold my earrings while I go to Hampton University and beat this witch down myself. "Aloha Mr. President...I am hoping that perhaps you would be able to make an appearance to my campus..." WTF

I STR8 HADTA respond 2 that article, so I did: I'm quotin' myself. :>) :>)

From a Hampton Alumna:

It wasn't until I read the of the letter to the PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES that I questioned the CRITERIA of the selection committee. 'cause if JUDGMENT was one of them, I would suggest a MAJOR FAIL in that category!

Then, when I read the content of the letter, I agreed with myself - - EPIC FAIL in the RATIONAL CATEGORY!

Of course MR. PRESIDENT has nothing else to do at this time!! Sooooo, "WHYCOME" he doesn't have TIME to come to her defense??? ***WINK*** ARGGGGG!

Are there no people of "mixed parentage" in the "neighborhood" that she could have sought advice from?? Geeeez!!!

Annnnnd, that "FAUX-POLOGY". . . .ENUFF SAID!!

***shakin' my head***

Now, Ima go and rest! :>) C U L8R! :>)

Hey GLH! :-) How are you?

I concur! Miss Churchill played herself on this one.

HEEEEY Sepia: ***BIG HUG** Doin' a little betta. :>)

This whole event - - -PLAYED HU!! SAD!!

it's also an EPIC FAIL in the persuasive category

Muzikal203: LOL!! :>) GOT! DAT! RIGHT!! :>)

Sooooooo, back 2 the CRITERIA! Where did she score well??? :>)

Hey GreenLady, hope you're doing well today. LOL regarding the Hampton "BeautyGate" :

Churchill said that the campus is multicultural so there undoubtedly could have been someone that she could have consulted with GreenLady.

From what I have read they are considering yanking her crown, so there are apparently others if not many others who don't think her judgement or thinking is very rational. If they hear from other alumna such as yourself, it will probably get addressed really quickly.

I don't see how she is going to survive very well representing that university based on the level of disrespect she has shown.

I thought the Grio site was well on point with all of the information. If the judges were so desperate for a win of the State beauty pageant, that they selected who they thought was the most "viable" candidate at the expense of all of the beautiful young women at Hampton, NOW the judges have to be embarrassed and thus the school.

HEEEEY Myth: I had a little energy 2-day. :>) THANKS!! :>)

The JUDGES have EMBARRASSED the "TUTE"! [That's what we called it "back in the day" when it was Hampton Institute.

Ima wait and C how THEY deal with this "TRAIN WRECK!" :>)

Hmmm, reading that letter, I can understand why she may not be accepted. You really expect the President of the United States to come to your school and speak on racial relations (?) because people on your campus don't like "accept" you?

My Alma Mater will be crowing our first White Miss Kentucky State University at coronation on Friday, maybe she should also write a letter, there was a lot of bitching and griping about the fact that she won. Well, on our campus you VOTE for Mr/Miss KSU, and I bet most of the people griping about it didn't bother to vote.

She should have put more thought into that letter, and someone should have talked her out of it.

*Edit* Here's an article about Elisabeth: http://www.state-journal.com/news/article/4577765

If she had bothered to be a part of the HU student community, maybe somebody would have.

HEEEEY Muzikal203: :>)

She should have put more thought into that letter, and someone should have talked her out of it.

1st part of this - MORE THOUGHT--: That's ona the reasons "WHYCOME" I began 2 question the CRITERIA.

2nd part - TALKED HER OUT OF IT - -: MEGA-CO-SIGN!! :>)

C U L8R! :>)

P.S. Continued BEST WISHES on your job search!

Disqus has gone loco.I am getting replies from a month ago.

HEEEY dj: I just received 1 also. Hmmmm? :>)

Heeeeeey, CSPAN got a video player. Cool beans

I tried this earlier for discussion or comment if you please. It is one of theways Wall Street look's at the economy.
THE ENVELOPE PLEASE...
IN THIS ISSUE
• The National Association of Business Economists (NABE) upgraded their forecast for U.S. GDP
• Does it get any more deflationary than this? Luxury retailers are handing out gift cards
• Revenue-less recovery — so far, 78% of the S&P 500 companies have beaten consensus estimates via relentless cost-cutting moves … This is simply not sustainable
• U.S. small businesses not optimistic about jobs and sales
• Home sales in Southern California rose in September, but it was mostly due to foreclosures
The latest consensus results are in from the National Association of Business Economists and Q3 real GDP growth is seen coming in at a 3.4% at an annual rate (versus 0.7% in May) and 2.4% for Q4 (again, up from 1.8% in the May survey). For all of 2010, the consensus sees 3.0% real GDP growth, up fractionally from 2.7% in May. So, consider for a moment that the S&P 500 has surged over 20% over a time period in which the growth outlook has climbed the grand total of ... 30 basis points.
The survey showed that 80% of the economics community believes the recession is over. Question is, what does the 20% share know that the other 80% don’t?
DOES IT GET ANY MORE DEFLATIONARY THAN THIS?
In case you missed it, yesterday's WSJ ran with a very Japanese story when it comes to pricing power in the U.S. Retail sector (Retailers Turn to Gift-Card Promotions To Lure Reluctant Buyers, Boost Spending on page B1). This article verges on the surreal — luxury retailers, such as Neiman Marcus, are handing out free $50 gift cards just to get potential shoppers through the door. Others are doing much the same. It will be interesting to see how the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) treats this deflationary development in the coming round of CPI statistics.
REVENUE-LESS RECOVERY
To date, an amazing 78% of the S&P 500 companies have thus far beaten consensus estimates. Then again, maybe this is less amazing than meets the eye since the consensus of street analysts have taken such a knife to their estimates that Q3 operating EPS is seen declining 25% from what were already depressed recession profits of a year ago. The WSJ ran with an article stating that because companies are being rewarded by the marketplace to such a great extent for beating their EPS estimates via relentless cost-cutting moves, executives are saying that “they are hesitant to reinvest such profits into their businesses.” This strategy is being deployed by so many firms that it is having a broad based dampening impact on private aggregate demand and hence corporate revenues — enticing firms to take even more costs out of the system.
All we know is that this process is not sustainable — either pricing power/revenues improve, and there was certainly no sign of this in the just-released National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) survey, or the $80+ of earnings currently embedded in equity market valuation will have to be revisited, revised and reduced. It will be at that point — and the timing is next to impossible, but it is a “when”, not an “if” — that the stock market embarks on its true corrective phase.
Please see important disclosures at the end of this document.
Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. is one of Canada’s pre-eminent wealth management firms. Founded in 1984 and focused primarily on high net
worth private clients, we are dedicated to meeting the needs of our clients by delivering strong, risk-adjusted returns together with the highest
level of personalized client service. For more information or to subscribe to Gluskin Sheff economic reports, visit www.gluskinsheff.com
October 14, 2009 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE
Intel did beat its bottom AND top lines; however, what this tells us is that companies are still focusing their attention on tech-led productivity gains rather than focusing on boosting output via a boost to staffing levels. This is all a very deflationary thrust emanating from the corporate sector. For a good take on how the senior folks pretty well see it the same way we do, take a read of the article Fed Vice Chairman Sees Tamed Inflation Threat on page A2 of today's WSJ.
Absent a plan to balance the books, U.S. government debt is poised to exceed 100% of GDP by 2011
The Treasury market would seem to agree that if inflation were a threat from all the monetary largesse, bond yields would most certainly be north of 5% right now. However, what doesn’t fit is gold continuing to set new highs. This isn’t about inflation, but quite possibly about sovereign default risk from all the fiscal largesse — absent a plan to balance the books, U.S. government debt is poised to exceed 100% of GDP by 2011 (see The Message of Dollar Disdain on page A23 of the WSJ — a must-read).
U.S. SMALL BUSINESSES NOT OPTIMISTIC
It seems that the optimism that is hitting large companies has not hit smaller firms
The September NFIB survey came out and the overall index rose a measly two-tenths of a point to 88.8 — this didn’t even beat the 88.9 level we saw back in May. Six out of the 10 components that make up the index were either flat or down on the month, so the breadth of the increase was narrow. It seems that the optimism that is hitting Wall Street, with regards to GDP growth, has not hit Main Street.
Since the index rose, let us start with the positives:
•
The inventory measures rose in September. The percentage of firms reporting current inventories as “too low” rose 4 points to 0 in September — highest reading since March 2006 and those planning to add to inventories rose a point to -6 in September. This doesn’t really reflect the notion that we will be seeing an inventory build in the coming months/quarters.
•
The percentage of firms reporting that now is a good time to expand the business rose to 9 in September from 5 in July and August — the highest level since this time last year. Yes, the index has now risen eight points from the March low, but consider that by the time we see a 60% run-up in the S&P 500, this index is usually averaging 16 already.
•
The percentage of firms planning capex in the next 3 to 6 months rose to 18 from 16 in August — this reading has been stuck in a tight range of 16 to 21 since July of 2008 and for Q3, this index actually fell, to 17 from 19 in Q2, which is the lowest reading since Q1 1975.
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October 14, 2009 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE
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The negatives:
Employment landscape for small businesses does not look good
•
The employment landscape for small businesses does not look great. The percent of firms with one or more job openings remained at an all time low of 8 in September. Those planning to increase employment fell four points to -4 in September, a four month low, so overall, small firms are still shedding jobs, not adding. As for wages, there is still no evidence of any significant increases either now or in the future: the percentage of firms raising worker’s compensation rose to 7 from 6 in August (the highest level since February) but those expecting to raise compensation stagnated at 3 in September.
•
The percentage of firms expecting the economy to improve fell to 8 from 10 in August. Interestingly, by the time the equity market hits 60% from the low, on average, the percentage of firms expecting the economy to improve is at 27%. So, if things are getting better, shouldn’t small businesses feel it too?
•
The percentage of firms expecting credit conditions to ease fell to -15 from -13 in August — a four month low. This means that, on net, small firms expect that it will be “harder” to arrange financings.
•
Those expecting higher real sales in six months fell a point to -6 — the 19th consecutive negative reading. In connection to this, it is no surprise that poor sales remain the number 1 worry for small firms (stuck at 32% since June).
The number one problem for small firms is poor sales; second major problem, taxes
•
Pricing power for small firms is very weak. Small businesses are not raising average selling prices, in fact they are decreasing prices: the percentage of firms raising average selling prices fell to -21 from -19 in August — a four month low and an unprecedented eleventh consecutive negative reading on the index. And, for planned increases, only 6% of small businesses are planning to raise average selling prices, this is down from 8% in August.
•
In the worry list, poor sales is the number one problem, but in September, taxes have become a major worry as well – 24% of respondents indicated that taxes is the most important single problem, up for 18% in August and is the highest reading since May 2007.
HOME SALES IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ARE ALL DUE TO FORECLOSURES
According to MDA DataQuick, the number of homes sold in SoCal rose 0.2% MoM in September to 21,539 units and on a year-over-year basis, home sales are now up 5.1%. However, most of the sales were attributed to foreclosures, which accounted for 40% of the homes/condos sold in the area, and it was probably also boosted by those taking advantage of the federal tax credit for first-time homebuyers, which expires at the end of November. As a result of these fire-sales, the median home and condo prices in Southern California fell 11% YoY in September, to $275,000. Overall, the state of the housing market in California remains clouded as the number of foreclosures that will hit the market are unknown at this point and what happens after the tax credit expires.

A broken "growth" economic model with speculation and economic bubbles created today's' financial disaster. Yet, the dinosaur brains are still insisting the broken "growth" model that supports the top 1% will work.

Very good piece on Michael Steele and some of the criticism he's getting

http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/tapped_archi...

I'm going to a screening of Jamie Foxx's "Law Abiding Citizen." Anybody have any thoughts or heard whether its worth my time or is it truly Oscar buzz????

It looks sorta science-fictiony from the previews, and I'm very curious about it.

Are you expecting others to judge a movie for you?
Go see it, WE all learn more with negative experiences, if we reflect on them.

""That is the man the world needs to know, a man who admitted his mistakes and reflected on them."" - Nelson Mandela

Good point...thanks for the reminder.

I got a preview last week. I thought it was not worth my time.

Is this the new trend?
white model Lara Stone being painted in blackface for French Vogue.


Read more at: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/zandile-blay/blac...

The author of the article, Zandie Blay, writes: "Yet, despite the cheap gimmick of white model/black face/"African clothing," I don't believe it was meant as racist or malicious, nor should it be interpreted as such. To do so - no pun intended - is painting the topic black and white. Carine Roitfeld doesn't hate black people - she probably doesn't know any. More to the point she likely doesn't have any on her staff, especially in an editorial capacity. And that points to the real issue: not a white model painted in blackface, but a dirth of black faces in a white industry."

You don't see many faces in the fashion industry, because the fashion industry is RACIST. But I guess Ms. Blay doesn't want to give up her token badge, so she avoids the "r" word.

"Carine Roitfeld doesn't hate black people - she probably doesn't know any"

O Please!! That's the problem! Racist as hell, but don't know it?! I think NOT!!!

O but that's right...melaninchallenged folks get a pass...if it is not their 'intent'...they not racist.

riiiiiiiiiiiiiiight

Interesting how the only criticism offered is "racist", but not "offensive" or "insulting" -- or even just plain old "foolish".

This is how a lot of Whites acquit themselves of being offensive or insulting or foolish or ignorant. Unless it's "racist", it must be OK.

You are RIGHT!