Daily Kos/Research 2000 — Democrat
Rasmussen — Republican
Gallup (registered voters*) — Independent
Diageo/Hotline — Independent

* Gallup has three different polls, but the RV poll is the one that's been around for the longest this year. When I do those four polls, I'm looking for comparability, so I can judge the movements over time.

I average these polls. I am posting just before midnight Eastern time on Oct. 26th, and today the average of those polls shows Obama up 9%. Yesterday, he was up 9.5%. That's tied for the highest he's been since just before the third debate.

I also look at 538.com, especially for the state polls. They tend to lag the national polling trends. This makes sense, because the national tracking polls are moving 3-day averages that are constantly updated, while the state polls are more likely either one-shot deals or intermittently done.

To all of that, I do an adjustment for higher turnout among groups that aren't as well polled as the average, or whose behavior is likely to change in ways that aren't captured by the standard analysis. Black voters is the prime example. In 2004, the black turnout rate was 60%, compared with 67% for non-Hispanic whites. In 2004, 88% of blacks voted for Kerry 12% for Bush.

This year, we already know it'll be different. The Washington Post has polled African Americans extensively, and says the black vote is breaking 98%-2% for Obama. Now, being white without a lot of personal interaction with black folks, the following is a guess: I am guessing that black turnout will be up in a huge way this year, owing to Obama's “first” status.

I don't think there's a lot of rocket science there. Not with the Washington Post polling, and not with stories I'm seeing about huge early voting in the South by black people. Last week, I read that the entire campus of Florida A&M followed its marching band to the local polling place and spent the day voting. So, I think black turnout will be at least 80%, and that number is probably way too conservative.

Blacks are far more likely than the general population to have nothing but a cellphone, and the big polling organizations do some cellphone polling but I doubt enough of it. Then there are young people of all races, who are voting in greater numbers, and who are also more likely to be cellphone-only. Same goes for Hispanic voters, who in spite of the reports of tensions with black people in various places are going for Obama by at least a two-thirds margin.

Take all that together, and I think you've got to add at least 2-3% to Obama's average percentage in the polls, which is now running at about 51%. So, I think Obama gets at least 53-54% of the vote. I think he gets about 375 electoral votes. I think the Democrats pick up at least 8 Senate seats, and at least 25 House seats. There is more upside than downside to all those numbers, but as a Democrat who has been cruelly disappointed in the past I am reluctant to state my dreams and hopes here.

But, I want to comment on your very last statement:

Stay focused . . . Don’t take the bait!

Today, in church, my pastor STR8 asked errybody “Are YOU registered ta VOTE?” I have served as Voter Registration Facilitator and I told him that I believ' that we have gotten errybody ANND they grandmother/grandfather.

He's been trying NOT to make a “political pulpit” – 'cause ya don't know who has their cell phone video rollin' :>) BUT, he has been telling people to see me and to VOTE!

Well, ta-day – he “jes couldn't hold his peace!” Just STR8 asked for a show of hands!

ALL eligible VOTERS raised they hands! :>) It was a beautiful sight!! :>)

THEY waved their hands in the air like they just didn't care!!

And, I shouted “HALLELUJAH!!”

CHOICH WAS FIRED UP! READY TO GO! TO THE POLLS!!! :>) A-man!! :>)

Obama-Biden '08!! TRUST

Everyday People

Sometimes I'm right, but I can be wrong
My own beliefs are in my song
The butcher, the baker, the drummer and then
Makes no difference what group I'm in

I am everyday people
Yeah, yeah

There is a blue one who can't accept the green one
For living with a fat one trying to be a skinny one
Different strokes for different folks
And so on, and so on and scooby-dooby-doo

Ooh, sha, sha
We got to live together

I am no better, and neither are you
We are the same, whatever we do
You love me, you hate me, you know me and then
You can't figure out the bag I'm in

I am everyday people
Yeah, yeah

There is a long hair that doesn't like the short hair
For being such a rich one that will not help the poor one
Different strokes for different folks
And so on and so on and scooby-dooby-doo

Ooh, sha, sha
We got to live together

There is a yellow one that won't accept the black one
That won't accept the red one that won't accept the white one
Different strokes for different folks
And so on, and so on and scooby-dooby-doo

Ooh, sha, sha
I am everyday people

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kjX2MKaZ-rg

Daily Kos/Research 2000 — Democrat
Rasmussen — Republican
Gallup (registered voters*) — Independent
Diageo/Hotline — Independent

* Gallup has three different polls, but the RV poll is the one that's been around for the longest this year. When I do those four polls, I'm looking for comparability, so I can judge the movements over time.

I average these polls. I am posting just before midnight Eastern time on Oct. 26th, and today the average of those polls shows Obama up 9%. Yesterday, he was up 9.5%. That's tied for the highest he's been since just before the third debate.

I also look at 538.com, especially for the state polls. They tend to lag the national polling trends. This makes sense, because the national tracking polls are moving 3-day averages that are constantly updated, while the state polls are more likely either one-shot deals or intermittently done.

To all of that, I do an adjustment for higher turnout among groups that aren't as well polled as the average, or whose behavior is likely to change in ways that aren't captured by the standard analysis. Black voters is the prime example. In 2004, the black turnout rate was 60%, compared with 67% for non-Hispanic whites. In 2004, 88% of blacks voted for Kerry 12% for Bush.

This year, we already know it'll be different. The Washington Post has polled African Americans extensively, and says the black vote is breaking 98%-2% for Obama. Now, being white without a lot of personal interaction with black folks, the following is a guess: I am guessing that black turnout will be up in a huge way this year, owing to Obama's “first” status.

I don't think there's a lot of rocket science there. Not with the Washington Post polling, and not with stories I'm seeing about huge early voting in the South by black people. Last week, I read that the entire campus of Florida A&M followed its marching band to the local polling place and spent the day voting. So, I think black turnout will be at least 80%, and that number is probably way too conservative.

Blacks are far more likely than the general population to have nothing but a cellphone, and the big polling organizations do some cellphone polling but I doubt enough of it. Then there are young people of all races, who are voting in greater numbers, and who are also more likely to be cellphone-only. Same goes for Hispanic voters, who in spite of the reports of tensions with black people in various places are going for Obama by at least a two-thirds margin.

Take all that together, and I think you've got to add at least 2-3% to Obama's average percentage in the polls, which is now running at about 51%. So, I think Obama gets at least 53-54% of the vote. I think he gets about 375 electoral votes. I think the Democrats pick up at least 8 Senate seats, and at least 25 House seats. There is more upside than downside to all those numbers, but as a Democrat who has been cruelly disappointed in the past I am reluctant to state my dreams and hopes here.

But, I want to comment on your very last statement:

Stay focused . . . Don’t take the bait!

Today, in church, my pastor STR8 asked errybody “Are YOU registered ta VOTE?” I have served as Voter Registration Facilitator and I told him that I believ' that we have gotten errybody ANND they grandmother/grandfather.

He's been trying NOT to make a “political pulpit” – 'cause ya don't know who has their cell phone video rollin' :>) BUT, he has been telling people to see me and to VOTE!

Well, ta-day – he “jes couldn't hold his peace!” Just STR8 asked for a show of hands!

ALL eligible VOTERS raised they hands! :>) It was a beautiful sight!! :>)

THEY waved their hands in the air like they just didn't care!!

And, I shouted “HALLELUJAH!!”

CHOICH WAS FIRED UP! READY TO GO! TO THE POLLS!!! :>) A-man!! :>)

Obama-Biden '08!! TRUST