Always.

The whole theory of the phenomenon is premised upon a lie.

I've never met a bigot who has a problem with being a bigot.

Never.

The Bradley Effect is a smokescreen for election fraud.

I think this point of view is narrow.

Racism is just one more variable that affects elections. Pollsters otherwise don't have any stake in what the variables are, or who wins an election. The problem is that blacks are true and consistent in their racism, and whites lie.

How much whites lie, is what pollsters are trying to get a handle on. Because they make their living on being accurate, and suddenly there is a variable of unknown magnitude that could easily exceed their margin of error. Their cheese is threatened.

It also skews where campaign resources should be spent. My advice to Obama would be to forget trying to pick off any red states, or states not already leaning blue. Focus everything on CO, MI, MN, PA, NM and WI. Just states he is not already up by at least +3. Do this and he can can win 273 to 265. In short, don't get greedy. The object is to win, by how much doesn't matter. So forget NC, VA, IN, and OH. They are not needed.

Honestly, are folks deliberately trying to lose this election?

Always.

I think this point of view is narrow.

Racism is just one more variable that affects elections. Pollsters otherwise don't have any stake in what the variables are, or who wins an election. The problem is that blacks are true and consistent in their racism, and whites lie.

How much whites lie, is what pollsters are trying to get a handle on. Because they make their living on being accurate, and suddenly there is a variable of unknown magnitude that could easily exceed their margin of error. Their cheese is threatened.

It also skews where campaign resources should be spent. My advice to Obama would be to forget trying to pick off any red states, or states not already leaning blue. Focus everything on CO, MI, MN, PA, NM and WI. Just states he is not already up by at least +3. Do this and he can can win 273 to 265. In short, don't get greedy. The object is to win, by how much doesn't matter. So forget NC, VA, IN, and OH. They are not needed.

Honestly, are folks deliberately trying to lose this election?

Objectivity my arse.

I give the whole run-down of the “screening” and methodology this company uses here, but bottom line question is this: Who bothers to complete a survey such as the one described? Someone with a baseline of bigotry to begin with. The rest of us? We abandon an online survey that forces us to apply a single word adjective, positive or negative, to an entire race!

Not discounting the destructive force that is Bushco, but the fact that we can't get the truth out, that the media has abandoned its role as watchdog of democracy, that's worse. Forty years ago, Bush would have been history after a couple of years because the press would have been all over his lies and the American people would have been justifiably, legitimately, angry and demanding accountability.

This article is just a fucking outrage. And yet there is truth there too. I know it by the way any conversational mention of a crime in this city is followed by the question.

You know, the question? Sort of a whispered, eyes cast down, almost furtive: “Was he black?” “Were they black?”

They're never asking about the victim. Always the perpetrator, this need to identify and pigeonhole and confirm a belief.I heard it for 16 years when I worked in child welfare, talking about my feelings about some of the most heinous cases. Were they black? these parents who mutilated this child? Was he black? this man who raped the little boy? I can't write that without feeling like crying. I'm sorry to be a drag but this just breaks my heart. I don't think I can stand living in this country anymore.

I have to read more of the information provided over at The Field. But, to be honest, I'm uncomfortable with the premise that the “Bradley Effect” is a myth. Whether or not it is a determining factor might be another argument. But I fear some of us might let our guards down if we think it's just a myth. That this might be a factor should be enough for us to prepare for it in the event that it does happen.

I'll have to take a page from Rachel Maddow's book and simply say that I'll need to have someone try to “talk me down” from my belief that the Bradley Effect could be “a” factor in this election (not “the” singular factor, but one of several factors).

On a slightly different note, I do think that Obama would be up by 15-20% if he were white. That's not a knock against Obama . . . that's a knock against the media where journalism often focuses on Obama's alleged “failure” to reach voters that are relentlessly cactagorized by racial and cultural background (as discussed throughout this thread).

But this doesn't mean that it's something that we can't overcome.

Let me stress the following: I honestly do expect that Obama will win this election. However, I think he'll win in spite of racism, but not because I think racism won't show its face in the voting booths. At the end of the day, I believe two things:

1. We have progressed enough as a nation so that race shouldn't be as big a factor as it might have been 20 years ago (I'm talking about the youth vote . . . particularly the 18-30 demographic, though I'd broaden that to 18-40); and

2. Obama's very impressive and well-organized grassroots operation will ultimately deliver this election (I think Obama is where he is today, in large part, because of (1) his unyielding focus on how to get from points A to B; and (2) the fact that he's taken an unconventional, bottom-up approach to campaigning that focuses on registering new voters from traditionally ignored demographics)

My approach to this election falls in line with those who say that, “this is a test for America”. This country can't continue to say one thing, but then do another. Don't say you want change and that you're tired of failed Republican policies, but then turn around and act in a way that puts Republicans right back in the White House.

On a similar note, the Rev. Eugene Rivers went on MSNBC a couple of weeks ago and argued that race could not be blamed if Obama loses. This pisses me off. He does not know, yet he's willing to go on national tv and shape the debate before people even vote. Sorry, but if exit polls show that “X”% of whites freely admit that race plays a major factor in their vote . . . . I'm going to call them out on it! We should take them at their word and plan accordingly. We should be prepared for whatever comes our way.

I agree with those who say that the best approach isn't to deny the existence of the Bradley Effect in a given state . . . it's to overcompensate for that anticipated racial bias. To win in spite of any potential Bradley Effect, but not under the presumption that it doesn't exist. To not let the Bradley Effect paralyze us with fear or a self-defeatist attitude, but to have a healthy amount of cautious optimism that we will prevail despite the racists and bigots because WE ARE BETTER THAN THEY ARE. We are better prepared and better organized.

Let me also stress another point: I whole-heartedly agree with those who acknowledge how the Bradley Effect quickly turns into some type of “the black guy can't win” meme. This is where we see racism in the media. The constant, “Barack can't win/can't close the deal with 'x” voters” and “He has to prove that he's 'one of us'” narratives are shameless and transparent attempts to shape the electorate . . . I agree, it is an attempt at a self-fulfilling prophesy . . . . and I applaud the people over at The Field and other places for calling the media on its b.s.

Still, I can not forget New Hampshire. And I've yet to hear someone reasonably explain the 15-18% swing in the span of 48 hours. Even Hillary's camp had her losing NH by a solid margin. I never bought the whole “women rallied around Hillary when she showed emotion” argument . . . one tear = 15% overnight??? I mean, I kow there's white privilege, but DAMN!

Bottom line: NONE of us really knows how race is gonna play out in this election. To date, we've had zero statistics to test a real life black PRESIDENTIAL candidate (at least, not one with a legitimate shot at the White House). This is a FIRST in our nation's history . . . we need to be prepared for whatever twists and turns come our way.

My concern is that calling the Bradley Effect a myth (though it affectivley attacks “the black guy can't win” meme) could also serve to our disadvantage. It might make some of us a little complacent. It might make some of us lose focus on the main objective . . . to win this election. I'd rather keep that psychological edge that says . . . “until proven otherwise, we'll have to overcompensate for two-faced ignorance and bigotry in the voting booths.” Now, I hope and anticipate that Nov. 4 will “prove otherwise.” But I'll keep my guard up until then.

If that psychological edge means that we donate an extra dollar . . . write an extra blog post . . . knock on one more door . . . or bring one more family member to the voting booths, then so be it.

I'd like to close by revisiting something I said earlier:

I do think that this is a test for America. Not just a test to challenge social bigotry, but to also test the strength, FOCUS and power of progressive politics. Which is why I've said the following for the past few months . . .

This ain't the time to get cute!

This is the time to WIN. It's that simple. We don't need another martyr for the cause . . . we've had enough of those. We need to win.

This is not the year for protest votes with third party candidates. This is not the year to stay home or drag our feet. This is not the year to second-guess ourselves. IF we really want to see this country change directions, then we need to get out, vote for Obama on Nov. 4, AND WIN THIS DAMN ELECTION!!!!

This ain't the time to wring our hands like we do every four years. . . or nitpick our candidate to death . . . or form the circular firing squad. Obama might not be perfect . . . but he's pretty DAMN good. And since no candidates (including third party candidates) are ever perfect, I think it's time we stop waiting for perfection and go with our candidate who (1) has a legitmate shot to win; and (2) is 1000 times better than the alternative Republican ticket.

The other side ain't wastin' time, people. Republicans KNOW how to win elections. But I honestly believe that we have the numbers to win if we stay focused and work together.

8 LONG years. . . . all I've heard from people is that we need to change course . . . this is our chance. Don't let it pass us by.

what a wild ride this is.

man calls Obama – OSAMA

and that's covert?

-Barack Obama

no hopelessness here. there are steps to be taken. for every bigot in this story t hat's named, go out and register that amount of new voters. or phonebank double or triple that amount in the states where these folks said where they lived. there ARE positive steps we can take.

his show needs to be cancelled. just because he loves to fuck black women doesn't mean he's immune to racist ideology.

Let me use a sports metaphor. If a ref makes a bad call that give you foul shots you don't deserve, or erases a touchdown by the other team, you celebrate your good luck. But It's not like you're saying, “it's great that the refs blew the call… I really feel good about myself that a bad call won the game for us.”

I meant to write that I am NOT questioning what you heard on NPR.