Jack & Jill Politics

Newsflash everyone . . .

The sky is NOT falling. I repeat . . . the sky is NOT falling.

Try to keep this in mind when you watch the mainstream media. Remember this if you should happen to hear the likes of Pat Buchanan and Joe Scarborough . . . Lou Dobbs and Fox News. Try to keep your sanity between sips of Morning Joe . . .

The sky is NOT falling.

What am I talking about?

Well, it’s all about the MATH(I was screaming this during the primaries). And, if the math holds true, Obama’s in for a big night come November.

Pollster.com currently gives Obama a 284 to 147 lead in the Electoral College (270 is needed to win). Heck, even Karl Rove gives Obama 272.

And if that weren’t enough, Sunday’s Gallup gave Obama his biggest lead yet in their daily tracking poll. These latest results give Obama a 9 point lead (49%-40%) nationwide.

The Huffington Post’s Thomas Edsall takes a deeper look at the numbers from Pollster.com:

The public opinion experts who run the site say states with 284 electoral college votes – 14 more than the 270 needed to win – lean to or firmly support Barack Obama; states with 147 lean toward or are in John McCain’s camp; and 10 states with 107 electoral votes are tossups.

In other words, the site suggests that Obama does not need to win a single tossup state — Colorado, Missouri, Florida, Virginia, Arizona, Nevada, Montana, North Dakota, North Carolina or Indiana — to take the oath of office on January 20, 2009.

That’s right, Obama just spent a week playing on John McCain’s alleged turf (foreign policy, national security) and came away with some of his best polling numbers of the general election campaign. Plus, keep the following in mind:

1. Obama and the Dems haven’t even begun to focus on the economy (an area where they’re viewed to have a natural advantage);
2. The Dems have yet to go negative (for the most part, it’s been McCain responding to Obama, not the other way around . . . it’s been his camp that’s been pumping out the attack ads as of late); and
3. Obama is slated for two more boosts when he announces his V.P. choice and gives his acceptance speech at the Democratic Convention.

Of course, this should control the news cycle for the next two days. But will it????

Well, a study by The Center for Media and Public Affairsat George Mason University might suggest otherwise. Their study has determined a media bias against . . . (drum roll) the Democratic nominee, Senator Obama.

You heard that right. As many of you have noted, more coverage does not necessarily equal preferential coverage.

The L.A. Times’ James Rainey reports:

During the evening news, the majority of statements from reporters and anchors on all three networks are neutral, the center found. And when network news people ventured opinions in recent weeks, 28% of the statements were positive for Obama and 72% negative.

Network reporting also tilted against McCain, but far less dramatically, with 43% of the statements positive and 57% negative, according to the Washington-based media center.

Yup . . . Obama’s beating the media bias as well.

But please don’t celebrate too soon. After all, it’s still early and some of these numbers (especially Gallup tracking polls) shift from day to day. 

And never overlook the media’s apparent preference for a tight race (remember they helped drag that Democratic Primary out all the way to June). I’d expect the media to structure their broadcasting according to the polls. My guess is they’ll probably downplay this bump in the polls and overreact to McCain’s veep choice just to make it seem like McCain has momentum. I can see it now . . . cable news will have you convinced that someone like Mitt Romney or Tim Pawlenty is the “game-changer” McCain needed to get back in the race.  If that fails, they can always try to stir more drama from diehard Hillary supporters.

Finally, there’s always that elephant in the room when considering Obama’s historic candidacy:

“We estimate that about 11 or 12 percent of voters who would otherwise vote for Obama will not vote for him because he is black. Our forecasting model, if uncorrected for the race factor, predicts a landslide for Obama. But once the ‘racial cost’ is corrected for, we get a bare Obama majority (about 50.6% of the two-party popular vote).” (Michael S. Lewis-Beck, of the University of Iowa and Charles Tien of Hunter College, City University of New York, via The Huffington Post)

I’d actually be over-confident if this were any candidate otherthan Obama. But I haven’t forgotten New Hampshire. I love the good news, but I’m not taking anything for granted.

Things look good now, but we all know that they could change at any moment.

Stay focused.

But remember, despite what the pundits try to tell you . . .

The sky is NOT falling.