Jack & Jill Politics

Also, look at the history of the NH poll--specifically, 2000. They got the (R) result WAY wrong. No one was polling a McCain 18-point win.

I think there's a young lady on the ground here in Atlanta who's in charge of getting young Black and Brown voters to turn out. I've heard her at least once on local Black radio.

That said, Obama needs to aim for well-educated women. He can't compete with poor White women, period. Moreover, there was a lower than expected youth turn out. Keep in mind that NHU was NOT in session.


I wonder - are the campaigns canvassing the black colleges in South Carolina and Georgia for the educated black youth vote?

Keep in mind, the candidate who wins in Iowa almost never wins in NH. So, this is keeping in line with traditional results. The 2% margin is a cause of cautious optimism for Obama.


But, here's the thing - Clinton can lose SC, but still do well enough on Super Tuesday to win the nomination. The Clintons are still the Dem. Establishment, with all the tolls that come with being that status.



If Obama loses SC, I don't think he will get the nomination. But, if Hillary starts talking in her "blaccent" while campaigning in SC, it's time to call her on it.



Obama can still pull in the male vote (all ages, both parties) far better than Clinton. Plus, if given a choice between Obama and Clinton, most Republican voters (not the party's power brokers) would choose Obama. That's why the hard right is hoping Clinton wins the nomination, since nothing rallies their base like a Clinton in the spotlight.



One thing (among many) that bugs me about the news coverage is that the media keep saying, "Women turned out for HRC". Why not make the more accurate statement, "White women turned out for HRC"?



- KXB

"Obama made a tactical mistake in my judgment by no coming to her defense in some way."


I thought this was a presidential election not The High School Musical. John Edwards wife is dying of cancer and lost a teenage son. Why the hell should he feel sorry for Hillary Clinton simply because she's crying over her personal ambition!



Juxtapose Hillary Clinton with Bhutto who just got her damn head shot off and never cried a tear in public before that. This mass sympathy for a crying for a privileged White woman is really fucked up!

Rikyrah,


Upon further examination of the inside numbers, I think there is a less pressing case for the Bradley effect. I suspect it had an impact with older voters who would not vote for a Black candidate under circumstance, but Obama did as well with men of all ages that Hillary did with women. It's hard to believe that White women in NH are more racist then men. I think this clearly the result of her protraying herself--YET AGAIN--as a victim. White women felt that she was on the verge of being deprived something owed to her and they swung to her side. That said, Obama needs to aim for well-educated women. He can't compete with poor White women, period. Moreover, there was a lower than expected youth turn out. Keep in mind that NHU was NOT in session.



All that said, he only lost by 2% points in the 2nd whitest state in the country. And that has to be the message sent to Black folks in SC. Moving forward, his ground troops have to focus on higher turnout among African Americans, the youth, men, and well-educated, professional White women who might be turned off to Hillary Clinton's professional victim act.

ronnie b., there is certainly a relationship between the media and poll results and how they are used.


this happens on lots of levels, but among them: 1) those polled are not incubated in sound-proof booths and 2) media (and other) types tend to come up with their own hypotheses that they "poll" to prove.



i honestly think that, quite simply, the reported polls reflected what the media wanted them to reflect...they wanted a bounce (which clinton advisor mark penn said wouldn't happen), and they wanted to see front-runner hillary 2 down. not suggesting they want obama to win, but it was clearly more fun to see clinton down.



in any case, everyone knew it was going to be close. his closest advisors are quoted as making it clear that they weren't out of the woods, so the "upset" that the media is painting is far from what the actual numbers and expectations were on the ground.

Unless you're saying that there's a relationship between polling and media, I'm not sure what parallel you're drawing.

I actually think that the explanation is that Hillary was long-projected to win NH, and the polls where skewed because the media was so knocked on their asses by Obama's Iowa win.


I think it's as simple as that. There is no upset here.

Could the Bradley Affect have come from White women this time? In other words, could undecided women in New Hampshire have looked into the eyes of Michelle Obama and not identified with her--on any level--as much as they could--on some level--with Hillary?

It was those fake azz crocodile tears. It worked on the All My Children/One Life To Live Stay At Homers.

I don't believe women voted for Clinton b/c she cried. I believe women voted for Clinton b/c men kicked her while she was down.


I agree with this.



Obama made a tactical mistake in my judgment by no coming to her defense in some way.



I disagree here. If he came off as "coming to her defense" he would have been accused of being patronizing. It was a no win situation there.



BUT



He did NOT lose by a big margin and there are still 48 states left! I think Obama will take Nevada and definitely South Carolina. I think Bill Clinton's race-tinged insults - and his patronizing tone that Donna Brazile recently noted - will hurt him with blacks - and not just in South Carolina. I don't think the Clintons realize how they have turned many of us off with the Madrassa/Kindergarten-gate, "the Republicans - not us! - will ask if Barack ever sold drugs to anyone" debacle and the infamous "who does this n____r think he is" Charlie Rose interview.



That said, I've heard some folks talking up a possible McCain/Huckabee matchup - terrifying.

Edwards gave the contest to Hillary.


Not only because he split the anti-Hillary vote, but because he took a shot at Clinton after the crying incident.



I don't believe women voted for Clinton b/c she cried. I believe women voted for Clinton b/c men kicked her while she was down.



Obama made a tactical mistake in my judgment by no coming to her defense in some way.

Re: nmp - I'm not so sure. As Andrew Sullivan (who raised the possibility of a Bradley effect as well) noted, given the exit poll results this would involve believing that white men didn't lie about their support for Obama but white women did. I don't think one group would be more racist than the other.

Laura,


Those who say they decided today SAY they voted 37% for Obama and 36% for Obama. These numbers make no sense. They are clearly lying to pollsters. I could the pre-eledtion pollsters and exit pollsters have all gotten it wrong?



While we wanted to believe that IA was representative of the changing face of American is was merely an aberration. I just hope this is the LAST election in which IA and NH, two of the five whitest states, play such a key role in the nomination process.

Looks like there was little to no Bradley effect. Re: Matthew Yglesias: "No one is talking about how the polls actually nailed Obama's number...He stayed steady and Hillary surged ahead. You can view the graf here: http://matthewyglesias.theatlantic.com/archives... in NH voted for Obama at the levels they said they were going to. But there were around 17% undecided voters going into those polls on Election Day, and it looks like they broke for Clinton.

raping? lynching? that's that good Fox News hyperbole.

I think the tear thing is separate from the Bradley effect. The Bradley effect is a negative, visceral reaction to the thought of voting for a black candidate.


The tear thing was a positive, supportive response of a gender. It was especially powerful among working Moms that often feel stressed about their professional lives. It spoke to their hearts, and was undoubtedly a powerful moment. The Clintons knew the way the media would portray it, and it worked beautifully. But that card can only be played once. If it's played again, it'll come off as cold, calculating, and cynical. The election will be decided in South Carolina. I think it's a 50/50 chance at the moment.

This race is SO ON my people.


Please make sure you are registered for your primaries



http://www.registrationbyworkingassets.com/register/



That ish will count.



Not sure if it was the Bradley effect or the tears or an inflated sense of victory flamed by the press and public, but it's emerging as a two person race this thing.



Neither candidate can take anything for granted, and THAT is good for democracy.



It ain't over by a long shot.

I now equate Hillary's episode on Monday with how white women in the South use to cry rape and get innocent black men lynched. I sincerely hope those (self-censorship).


The Bradley Effect is real in 2008...atleast in New Hampshire. Wow.



The good news is that 36 + 17 = 53.



Obama Voters + Edward Voters = Victory



Edwards voters will align with Obama.

It wasn't Bradley. Men voted for Obama in the same numbers they said they would.


It was the "choke up" and women reacting to the media of it (it wasn't nearly as negative as some portray it).

She won on the woman's vote. The men voted the same way they did in Iowa. This suggests the tears thing (which I believe, in the height of cynicism, was staged by a desperate campaign) broke her way. There was a massive shift of women in the last 24 hours, and the tear thing--not the Bradley effect--is the only explanation for that.


It made women identify with her. Here's her problem: she can't do that again every time she gets into a tough spot. She played that card once. The next time she does it, it'll be transparently phony and staged.



Here's the reality: the forces of cynicism weren't going to go down without a fight. Though Hillary Clinton won the primary, 61% of Democrats voted against her. (Memo to Edwards: you made a valiant run, but drop out; you're taking votes from Obama and thereby enabling the "status quo," now).



Also here's the other reality: Clinton may have won the battle, but she may also lose the war. Now she can't skip South Carolina to focus on Super Tuesday. She's obligated to go there and spend big money. If she loses that, New Hampshire will be a footnote going into Super Tuesday, and Obama will once again have the momentum.



The reality is that it's dead even at the quarter pole. Nevada isn't as important as South Carolina, and will garner less media attention. Michigan is totally worthless as Hillary's the only name on the ballot. And Florida doesn't count.



That leaves South Carolina. If Obama wins there, he'll get the nomination. If he doesn't, he probably won't. I will figure out a way to travel there and volunteer for him this week. We have to stand up for our country now. It's time to go win the battle on doorsteps.

Bradley effect in combination with the female sympathy vote. I knew when she shed those crocodile tears that there would be a dramatic swing. She's at her best when she plays the victim. Obama can't compete with that. Well, it was nice to feel like an American for a few days.

did the polling account for the spectacularly high turnout?

I hope to God you're not right.


There is one other possibility, though. Unlike Iowa, Hillary got a huge margin from women voters. Seems possible to me that this was a reaction to the media piling on of the past few days, culminating in the absurdly over-done reaction to a few tears.